Disturbance , Selection , and the Possibilities of Lock - In

Arthur’s (1988) model for competing technologies is discussed from the perspective of evolution theory. Using Arthur’s own model for the simulation, we show that ‘lock-ins’ can be suppressed by adding reflexivity or uncertainty on the side of consumers. Competing technologies then tend to remain in competition. From an evolutionary perspective, lock-ins and prevailing equilibrium can be considered as different trajectories of the techno-economic systems under study. Our simulation results suggest that technological developments which affect the natural preferences of consumers do not induce changes in trajectory, while changes in network parameters of a technology sometimes induce ordered substitution processes. These substitution processes have been shown empirically (e.g., Fisher & Prey, 1971), but hitherto they have been insufficiently understood from the perspective of evolutionary modelling. Implications for technology policies are discussed.